| 沈玉芹,刘慧.ROC曲线分析CD105标记的微血管密度在口腔扁平苔藓病情复发中的预测价值[J].口腔材料器械杂志,2025,34(1):22-26,42. |
| ROC曲线分析CD105标记的微血管密度在口腔扁平苔藓病情复发中的预测价值 |
| ROC curve analysis of microvessel density labeled with CD105 in predicting the recurrence of oral lichen planus |
| 投稿时间：2023-08-02 修订日期：2024-09-13 |
| DOI：10.11752/j.kqcl.2025.01.04 |
| 中文关键词: 口腔扁平苔藓 微血管密度 复发 危险因素 |
| 英文关键词:Oral Lichen Planus Microvessel Density Disease Recurrence Risk Factor |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探讨口腔扁平苔藓（OLP）病情复发与CD105标记的微血管密度（MVD）之间的相关性。方法 前瞻性选择 2018年 3月至 2021年 6月于我院接受治疗的 100例 OLP患者，根据随访期间患者是否复发分为复发组（n=43）和未复发组（n=57）。对比两组患者的一般资料和生化指标，通过多因素Logistic回归分析确定OLP病情复发的独立影响因素。对OLP病情复发与各独立影响因素的相关性以及CD105-MVD计数与其他独立危险因素的相关性进行分析，通过受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）评估 CD105-MVD计数对 OLP病情复发的预测价值。根据独立影响因素构建列线图模型，通过 ROC曲线，一致性指数（C-index）和校准图对预测模型进行验证。结果 复发组的 CD105-MVD计数显著高于未复发组患者（P＜0.05）。辛辣食物、OLP家族史、饮酒、CD105-MVD计数为OLP病情复发的独立危险因素，PLT为保护因素（P＜0.05）。CD105-MVD计数与OLP家族史（r=0.607, P=0.006）呈正相关但相关性相对较弱，与PLT（r=-0.836, P=0.001）呈显著负相关性，未发现CD105-MVD计数与辛辣食物和饮酒具有统计学意义的显著相关性。CD105-MVD计数预测OLP病情复发的 ROC 曲线下面积（AUC）为 0.776（95%CI:0.676~0.854）。根据多因素结果构建列线图预测模型，模型的 AUC 为 0.848（95%CI: 0.769~0.864）。结论 CD105-MVD 计数是 OLP 病情复发的独立危险因素，与病情复发密切相关，可作为临床诊疗的重要指标。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore investigate the correlation between the recurrence of oral lichen planus (OLP) and the microvessel density (MVD) marked by CD105. Methods A prospective study was conducted on 100 OLP patients who received treatment in our hospital from March 2018 to June 2021. Based on recurrence during the follow-up period, patients were divided into a recurrence group (n=43) and a non-recurrence group (n=57). General clinical data and biochemical indicators were compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for OLP recurrence. The correlations between OLP recurrence and independent risk factors, as well as between CD105-MVD count and other independent risk factors, were analyzed. The predictive value of CD105-MVD count for OLP recurrence was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on independent risk factors, and its performance was validated through the ROC curve, concordance index (C-index), and the calibration plot. Results The CD105-MVD count in the recurrence group was significantly higher than in the nonrecurrence group (P<0.05). Spicy food consumption, a family history of OLP, alcohol consumption, and CD105- MVD count were identified as independent risk factors for OLP recurrence, while platelet count (PLT) was a protective factor (P<0.05). CD105-MVD count showed a positive but relatively weak correlation with a family history of OLP (r=0.607, P=0.006) and a significant negative correlation with PLT (r=-0.836, P=0.001). No statistically significant correlations were observed between CD105-MVD count and spicy food consumption or alcohol intake. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting OLP recurrence using CD105-MVD count was 0.776 (95% CI: 0.676-0.854). The nomogram prediction model, based on multivariate analysis results, demonstrated an AUC of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.769-0.864). Conclusion CD105-MVD count is an independent risk factor for OLP recurrence,is strongly related to recurrence, and can be used as an important indicator for clinical diagnosis and treatment. |
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